File:Block diagram showing an iterative and adaptive decision strategy (US CCSP).svg

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摘要

描述
English: These block diagrams show two decision strategies:
  • A is a decision strategy in which nothing is done until research resolves all key uncertainties
  • B is an iterative and adaptive decision strategy, where action is taken before all key uncertainties are resolved.

According to M. Granger Morgan et al. (2009), and decision strategy B is better than A when there is deep uncertainty over decisions, as is the case with climate change. For decision strategy B, policy is continually reassessed based on the success of previous policies, and allowing for information based on new research. See also economics of global warming.

Summary of diagrams

Decision strategy A:

  • starts off with (1) identifying the problem at hand. This flows to:
  • (2): do research. This flows to:
  • (3): gain a full understanding of all the relevant issues. This feeds back to (2) and to:
  • (4): identify policy options. This flows to:
  • (5): implement the optimal policy. This flows to:
  • (6): solve the problem.

Decision strategy B:

  • starts off with (1): identifying a problem. This flows to:
  • (2): do research. This flows to:
  • (3): learn what you can and what you can't know (at least now). This flows to two tasks: (4) and (5):
  • (4): identify adaptive policies and choose one that currently looks best. An adaptive policy can be revised based on new evidence. (4) flows to (6).
  • (5): continue research. (5) flows to (7).
  • (6): implement policy and observe how it works. This flows to:
  • (7): Reassess policy in light of new understanding. This flows to:
  • (8): Refine problem identification as needed. This feeds back to (4) and (2).
日期
来源 CCSP (January 2009), “Ch.7: Making Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty: Fig. 7.1”, in Granger Morgan, M., et al., editors, Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research[1], Washington D.C., USA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
作者 Granger Morgan, M., et al.
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